What does quantitative risk determine regarding an adverse event?

Quantitative risk assessment focuses on evaluating the likelihood of adverse events occurring and the potential impact associated with those events. By measuring probability, this approach allows organizations to forecast risk in numerical terms, which aids in making informed decisions about mitigation strategies.

When assessing quantitative risk, analysts often rely on statistical data to determine the frequency of past incidents, which contributes to estimating how likely it is for a similar event to occur in the future. This probability is an essential component for risk management as it enables organizations to prioritize which risks need more attention based on their likelihood of occurring.

Additionally, while the other options may relate to risk assessment in various contexts, they do not specifically define what quantitative risk determines in terms of an adverse event. For instance, the effect size pertains to the impact of the event but does not specifically address likelihood; cumulative financial benefit is more focused on outcomes than risk; and historical data is essential for context but does not equal the probability itself. Thus, the focus on probability in the correct answer aligns perfectly with the principles of quantitative risk assessment.